The Oil Files
Energy consumption, charts, quotes, links, numbers, graphs, investing, crude Oil, price, Peak Oil, data, analysis. Focusing on the countries, the companies, and the resources.
Monthly Global Crude Oil Production 1995 - 2006
This chart is a recreation of the one that Stuart Staniford updates every month on The Oil Drum to track the occurrence of a peak or plateau in oil production. There is one major difference. I have included the data back to 1995, doubling the time frame covered. The production numbers are the revised numbers released by the EIA every month. I have also adopted a more horizontal layout, while Stuart's is compressed into a vertically-oriented shape. I am using a 13-month moving, centered average trendline.
One of the key questions regarding peak-oil is how much longer Saudi Arabia can continue to expand its spare capacity. The plan agreed to by Bush and Abdullah in the Spring of 2005 was that the Saudis would expand their production to 12 million barrels per day by 2008. I have interpreted this to mean the end of 2008. Daniel Yergin has stated that they are on track to meet this goal by "2009," in his latest article in the Times Online.
The chart above shows what I believe should be the quarterly goals in orange, an acceptable level of a quarter-million barrels per day in pink below this, and actual attained production in dark grey.
We should be able to tell from updates to this chart if we're in trouble or not.
Joint Senate Committee Hearing Transcript
The transcript for last November's Senate hearing on 'Energy Prices and Profits' is now available.
This hearing took place on Nov. 9th, 2005. It was held in front of both the Commerce and Energy Committees. It ran all day and included testimony from the CEO's of all the Big Oil companies. Not to be missed.
The transcript runs to 361 pages.
(Adobe Acrobat warning)
Interview with Amy Jaffe
From NPR's 'Here and Now' with Robin Young on Monday, Feb. 27th, 2006.
Amy Jaffe, a fellow in energy studies at Rice University in Houston, Texas.
station synopsis: Oil prices have slightly stabilized slightly after last week's attacks on Saudi Arabia and Nigeria's oil production companies drove prices to over $60 a barrel.
Last Friday, in the first attack on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, two cars laden with explosives were detonated before they were able to reach the kingdom's largest oil facility.
In Nigeria, production was was cut by nearly a fifth after militants kidnapped nine foreign oil workers, set pipelines on fire, and disrupted a major export terminal in the latest series of clashes between the Nigerian central government and local ethnic groups.
[You need Realplayer to listen]
This segment lists as 22m59s, but is only 8 minutes long. Jaffe presents a very balanced view of the current situation.
Oil Price Volatility 1998 - 2006
This uses a fairly crude method to calculate oil price volatility. I average the closing prices for Nymex futures each week. This becomes the weekly price. Then I compare the percentage difference between each week and the one 13 weeks before. I take the absolute value of this percentage change and then use a 26-week(6 month) simple moving average of number as an indicator of volatility. Not included in this version (to be added in future releases) is a trendline showing a slight downward trend over this specific period.
Following the Oil Dollars
NPR's Tom Ashbrook hosts this excellent discussion about the new Mid-East oil-boom.
You will need either WindowsMediaPlayer or RealPlayer to listen.
Here is a link to WBUR's synopsis of show and audio-file:
This piece lists as 48 minutes long, the first ten minutes seem to be devoted to an unrelated interview with a journalist regarding Iraq.
NPR and this program, On Point, have had some excellent installments and guests recently covering the world of energy and oil. Always fair and balanced.
pgs. 304-307 in Simmons on Russia.